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Primera A
Jaguares—America de Cali
· Estadio Jaraguay
Final score
2–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
45%Away clean sheet
A probability, not a prediction: 45% means the opposite outcome happens about 55% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JAG
- 25%
- Draw
- 31%
- AME
- 44%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 64% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Jaguares takes 1.54 points per game at home against 0.18 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Jaguares's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Jaguares — America de Cali
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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