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HNL
Istra 1961—HNK Gorica
· Stadion Aldo Drosina
What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- IST
- 33%
- Draw
- 30%
- HNK
- 37%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Istra 1961's attack: better than ~77% of the teams in the league
- Istra 1961 takes 1.58 points per game at home, the opponent 0.88 away
- HNK Gorica has lost 5 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- HNK Gorica has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Istra 1961 — HNK Gorica
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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