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Serie A
Inter—Monza
· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Final score
4–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
89%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 89% means the opposite outcome happens about 11% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- INT
- 89%
- Draw
- 8%
- MON
- 3%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Inter's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Inter takes 2.32 points per game at home, the opponent 1.37 away
- Monza has 12 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Monza's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- 3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of Inter — Monza
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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