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Major League Soccer
Inter Miami—Toronto FC
· Nu Stadium
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
70%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 70% means the opposite outcome happens about 30% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- INT
- 70%
- Draw
- 17%
- TOR
- 13%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Inter Miami's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Inter Miami takes 2.14 points per game at home, the opponent 0.84 away
- Toronto FC has 12 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Inter Miami's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Inter Miami has 12 declared absences
The full analysis of Inter Miami — Toronto FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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