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Primera A
Independiente Medellin—Llaneros
· Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
74%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 74% means the opposite outcome happens about 26% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MED
- 63%
- Draw
- 23%
- LLA
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Independiente Medellin's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Independiente Medellin takes 1.75 points per game at home, the opponent 1.07 away
- Independiente Medellin has won 5 of its last 6
The full analysis of Independiente Medellin — Llaneros
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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