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Primera A
Independiente Medellin—Jaguares
· Estadio Atanasio Girardot
What the model reads
67%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MED
- 67%
- Draw
- 22%
- JAG
- 11%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Independiente Medellin's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Jaguares's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Independiente Medellin takes 1.7 points per game at home, the opponent 0.18 away
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
- On this league, our verified analyses held 50% for 72% announced (over 26): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Independiente Medellin — Jaguares
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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