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Liga Profesional Argentina
Independ. Rivadavia—Aldosivi
· Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini
Final score
4–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- RIV
- 59%
- Draw
- 26%
- ALD
- 15%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Independ. Rivadavia's attack: better than ~86% of the teams in the league
- Aldosivi's defence: tighter than only ~14% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Independ. Rivadavia takes 1.83 points per game at home, the opponent 0.52 away
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 26%: the outright win is not secured.
- Aldosivi takes 1.18 points per game at home against 0.52 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Independ. Rivadavia — Aldosivi
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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