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Serie B
Hellas Verona—Vicenza Virtus
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What the model reads
55%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 55% means the opposite outcome happens about 45% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VER
- 55%
- Draw
- 27%
- VIC
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Hellas Verona's defence: tighter than only ~12% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Hellas Verona — Vicenza Virtus
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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