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Eredivisie
Heerenveen—PEC Zwolle
· Abe Lenstra Stadion
Final score
0–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
68%Over 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- HEE
- 62%
- Draw
- 22%
- ZWO
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- PEC Zwolle's defence: tighter than only ~17% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Heerenveen takes 2.04 points per game at home, the opponent 0.71 away
- PEC Zwolle has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- PEC Zwolle takes 1.57 points per game at home against 0.71 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Heerenveen — PEC Zwolle
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.