Lire cette analyse en français
UEFA Europa League · Play-offs
Hapoel Beer Sheva—Dinamo Zagreb
· Superbet Arena - Giulesti
What the model reads
77%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 77% means the opposite outcome happens about 23% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- HAP
- 26%
- Draw
- 26%
- ZAG
- 48%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Dinamo Zagreb's attack: better than ~95% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Hapoel Beer Sheva — Dinamo Zagreb
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.