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Super League
Hangzhou Greentown—Yunnan Yukun
· Hangzhou Dragon Stadium
Final score
6–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
70%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 70% means the opposite outcome happens about 30% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- HAN
- 52%
- Draw
- 22%
- YUN
- 26%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 37% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Yunnan Yukun's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Hangzhou Greentown takes 1.72 points per game at home, the opponent 0.96 away
- Hangzhou Greentown takes 1.72 points per game at home against 1.04 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Hangzhou Greentown's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Yunnan Yukun takes 2 points per game at home against 0.96 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Hangzhou Greentown — Yunnan Yukun
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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