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Allsvenskan
Halmstad—Kalmar FF
· Orjans Vall
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
66%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 66% means the opposite outcome happens about 34% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- HAL
- 33%
- Draw
- 32%
- KAL
- 35%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Kalmar FF's defence: tighter than only ~34% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Halmstad takes 0.96 points per game at home, the opponent 0.13 away
- Kalmar FF has 6 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Halmstad's defence: tighter than only ~24% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Kalmar FF takes 1.89 points per game at home against 0.13 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Halmstad — Kalmar FF
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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