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Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas—Club Queretaro
· Estadio Akron
What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GUA
- 55%
- Draw
- 27%
- QUE
- 18%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 58% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Guadalajara Chivas's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
- Guadalajara Chivas takes 1.96 points per game at home, the opponent 1.17 away
- Guadalajara Chivas scores 2 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Guadalajara Chivas — Club Queretaro
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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