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Eredivisie
Groningen—Fortuna Sittard
· Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Final score
2–3
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Home or draw
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GRO
- 52%
- Draw
- 26%
- SIT
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 49% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Fortuna Sittard's defence: tighter than only ~21% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Groningen takes 1.65 points per game at home, the opponent 0.77 away
- Fortuna Sittard has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Groningen has 8 declared absences
- Fortuna Sittard takes 1.58 points per game at home against 0.77 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Groningen — Fortuna Sittard
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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