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Serie A
Gremio—Vasco DA Gama
· —
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
73%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 73% means the opposite outcome happens about 27% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GRE
- 61%
- Draw
- 22%
- VAS
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 52% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Vasco DA Gama's defence: tighter than only ~19% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Gremio takes 1.81 points per game at home, the opponent 0.73 away
- Vasco DA Gama has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Gremio has 8 declared absences
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Gremio — Vasco DA Gama
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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