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Serie A
Gremio—Palmeiras
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What the model reads
76%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 76% means the opposite outcome happens about 24% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GRE
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- PAL
- 36%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Gremio takes 1.81 points per game at home against 0.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Palmeiras's attack: better than ~94% of the teams in the league
- Palmeiras has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Gremio — Palmeiras
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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