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Bundesliga
Grazer AK—Austria Vienna
· Merkur-Arena
What the model reads
46%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 46% means the opposite outcome happens about 54% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GRA
- 27%
- Draw
- 27%
- AUT
- 46%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 47% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Austria Vienna's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Grazer AK takes 1.61 points per game at home against 0.64 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Grazer AK's defence: tighter than only ~27% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Austria Vienna has won 3 of the last 4 meetings
The full analysis of Grazer AK — Austria Vienna
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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