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FKF Premier League
GOR Mahia—Murang'a SEAL
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What the model reads
61%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 61% means the opposite outcome happens about 39% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- MAH
- 60%
- Draw
- 26%
- MUR
- 14%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 61% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- GOR Mahia's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Murang'a SEAL's defence: tighter than only ~12% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- GOR Mahia takes 1.7 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
What could mislead us
- Murang'a SEAL's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- 3 draws in the last 6 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The full analysis of GOR Mahia — Murang'a SEAL
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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