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Segunda División
Girona—Albacete
· Estadio Municipal de Montilivi
What the model reads
79%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GIR
- 55%
- Draw
- 26%
- ALB
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Albacete has lost 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Albacete's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Girona's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Girona — Albacete
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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