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Liga Profesional Argentina
Gimnasia M.—Deportivo Riestra
· Victor Legrotaglie
What the model reads
67%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 67% means the opposite outcome happens about 33% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GIM
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- RIE
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 63% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Gimnasia M.'s attack: better than ~80% of the teams in the league
- Gimnasia M. takes 2 points per game at home, the opponent 0.74 away
- Gimnasia M. takes 2 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Gimnasia M.'s defence: tighter than only ~23% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Deportivo Riestra takes 1.78 points per game at home against 0.74 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Gimnasia M. — Deportivo Riestra
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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