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Primeira Liga
GIL Vicente—Maritimo
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What the model reads
50%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 50% means the opposite outcome happens about 50% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- VIC
- 50%
- Draw
- 26%
- MAR
- 24%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 57% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- GIL Vicente has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- On this league, our verified analyses held 59% for 71% announced (over 22): read the probability with caution.
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of GIL Vicente — Maritimo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.