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Serie A
Genoa—Napoli
· Luigi Ferraris
Final score
0–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Draw or away
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GEN
- 22%
- Draw
- 26%
- NAP
- 52%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Napoli has 8 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Napoli's attack: better than ~75% of the teams in the league
- Genoa's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Genoa — Napoli
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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