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Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK—Fenerbahçe
· Gaziantep Stadyumu
What the model reads
56%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- GAZ
- 20%
- Draw
- 24%
- FEN
- 56%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Fenerbahçe has 4 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Fenerbahçe's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Gaziantep FK's defence: tighter than only ~20% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Gaziantep FK — Fenerbahçe
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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