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Serie A
Frosinone—Juventus
· Stadio Benito Stirpe
Final score
0–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
87%Draw or away
A probability, not a prediction: 87% means the opposite outcome happens about 13% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- FRO
- 13%
- Draw
- 19%
- JUV
- 68%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Frosinone's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Frosinone takes 2.08 points per game at home, the opponent 1.52 away
- Juventus has 4 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Juventus's attack: better than ~85% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Frosinone — Juventus
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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