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Serie A
Flamengo—Botafogo
· Estádio do Maracanã
Final score
3–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
75%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- FLA
- 61%
- Draw
- 22%
- BOT
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 51% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Flamengo's attack: better than ~98% of the teams in the league
- Flamengo takes 2.34 points per game at home, the opponent 1.26 away
- Flamengo has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Botafogo's attack: better than ~90% of the teams in the league
- Botafogo takes 1.86 points per game at home against 1.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Flamengo — Botafogo
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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