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Czech Liga
FK Jablonec—Zlin
· Stadion Strelnice
What the model reads
61%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 61% means the opposite outcome happens about 39% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- JAB
- 61%
- Draw
- 23%
- ZLI
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Zlin's defence: tighter than only ~15% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- FK Jablonec takes 2.04 points per game at home, the opponent 0.8 away
- FK Jablonec has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- 5 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of FK Jablonec — Zlin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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