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Serie A
Fiorentina—Napoli
· Stadio Artemio Franchi
What the model reads
49%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 49% means the opposite outcome happens about 51% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- FIO
- 26%
- Draw
- 26%
- NAP
- 48%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Napoli's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- Napoli has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of Fiorentina — Napoli
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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