Lire cette analyse en français
UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Fenerbahçe—AS Roma
· Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
Final score
1–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
54%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- FEN
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- ROM
- 36%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Fenerbahçe's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- AS Roma has 4 declared absences
- Fenerbahçe has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- AS Roma's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Fenerbahçe has 14 declared absences
The full analysis of Fenerbahçe — AS Roma
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.