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Primeira Liga
FC Porto—Arouca
· Estádio do Dragão
Final score
2–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
92%Home or draw
A probability, not a prediction: 92% means the opposite outcome happens about 8% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- POR
- 78%
- Draw
- 14%
- ARO
- 8%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- FC Porto's attack: better than ~88% of the teams in the league
- Arouca's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- FC Porto takes 2.61 points per game at home, the opponent 1.09 away
What could mislead us
- Arouca's attack: better than ~73% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of FC Porto — Arouca
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.