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Major League Soccer
FC Dallas—Austin
· Toyota Stadium
What the model reads
79%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DAL
- 57%
- Draw
- 23%
- AUS
- 20%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Austin's defence: tighter than only ~35% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- FC Dallas takes 1.42 points per game at home, the opponent 0.89 away
- Austin concedes 2.2 goals per game away
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 23%: the outright win is not secured.
- Austin takes 1.54 points per game at home against 0.89 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of FC Dallas — Austin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.