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Primeira Liga
Famalicao—Sporting CP
· Estadio Municipal de Famalicao
What the model reads
60%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 60% means the opposite outcome happens about 40% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- FAM
- 19%
- Draw
- 22%
- SPO
- 59%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 12 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 50% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Sporting CP's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- The draw still weighs 22%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Famalicao — Sporting CP
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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