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Premier League
Everton—Crystal Palace
· Hill Dickinson Stadium
Final score
2–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
81%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 81% means the opposite outcome happens about 19% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- EVE
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- CRY
- 29%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Crystal Palace's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Crystal Palace has lost 4 of its last 6
- Everton has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could mislead us
- Everton has 6 declared absences
- Everton has lost 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Everton — Crystal Palace
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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