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Ligue 1
Estac Troyes—Strasbourg
· Stade de l'Aube
Final score
2–6
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
54%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- TRO
- 24%
- Draw
- 26%
- STR
- 50%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 48% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Strasbourg has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Estac Troyes has 6 declared absences
- On this league, our verified analyses held 48% for 67% announced (over 21): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Estac Troyes — Strasbourg
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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