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Ligue 1
Estac Troyes—Paris FC
· Stade de l'Aube
Final score
0–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
68%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- TRO
- 11%
- Draw
- 21%
- PAR
- 68%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Estac Troyes's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Estac Troyes takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 1.23 away
- Paris FC has 8 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Estac Troyes has 4 declared absences
- Paris FC has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Estac Troyes — Paris FC
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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