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La Liga
Espanyol—Real Madrid
· RCDE Stadium
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
79%Draw or away
A probability, not a prediction: 79% means the opposite outcome happens about 21% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ESP
- 21%
- Draw
- 23%
- REA
- 56%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Real Madrid has 14 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Real Madrid's attack: better than ~93% of the teams in the league
- Espanyol's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Espanyol — Real Madrid
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.