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Ligue 1
ES Zarzis—US Monastirienne
· Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium
What the model reads
75%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 75% means the opposite outcome happens about 25% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ESZ
- 26%
- Draw
- 33%
- USMO
- 41%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 70% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- ES Zarzis's attack: better than ~78% of the teams in the league
- ES Zarzis takes 1.71 points per game at home, the opponent 1.1 away
- ES Zarzis has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- US Monastirienne takes 2.05 points per game at home against 1.1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- US Monastirienne has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The full analysis of ES Zarzis — US Monastirienne
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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