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Ligue 1
ES Tunis—ES Sahel
· Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi
Final score
3–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
92%Home or draw
A probability, not a prediction: 92% means the opposite outcome happens about 8% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- EST
- 75%
- Draw
- 17%
- ESS
- 8%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- ES Tunis's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- ES Tunis takes 2.32 points per game at home, the opponent 1.28 away
What could mislead us
- ES Sahel's attack: better than ~72% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of ES Tunis — ES Sahel
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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