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Ligue 1
ES Setif—JS Kabylie
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What the model reads
68%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- SET
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- KAB
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 64% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- ES Setif takes 1.95 points per game at home against 0.65 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- ES Setif has won 4 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- JS Kabylie's attack: better than ~86% of the teams in the league
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of ES Setif — JS Kabylie
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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