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Segunda División
Eldense—Eibar
· Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat
What the model reads
41%Away win
A probability, not a prediction: 41% means the opposite outcome happens about 59% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- ELD
- 30%
- Draw
- 29%
- EIB
- 41%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What could mislead us
- Eldense's defence: tighter than only ~6% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Eibar takes 2 points per game at home against 1.24 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of Eldense — Eibar
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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