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Premiership
Dundee—Motherwell
· Dens Park
What the model reads
57%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DUN
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- MOT
- 38%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 45% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Dundee takes 1.52 points per game at home against 0.88 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Motherwell takes 1.92 points per game at home against 1.28 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Dundee — Motherwell
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.