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Championship
Derby—Birmingham
· Pride Park
Final score
1–2
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
53%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 53% means the opposite outcome happens about 47% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DER
- 53%
- Draw
- 25%
- BIR
- 22%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 53% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Birmingham has 10 declared absences
What could mislead us
- Derby has 16 declared absences
- On this league, our verified analyses held 54% for 67% announced (over 46): read the probability with caution.
The full analysis of Derby — Birmingham
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.