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Primera A
Deportivo Pereira—Jaguares
· Santiago de las Atalayas
What the model reads
68%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 68% means the opposite outcome happens about 32% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PER
- 51%
- Draw
- 30%
- JAG
- 19%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
What supports it
- Jaguares's defence: tighter than only ~7% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Deportivo Pereira takes 1.5 points per game at home, the opponent 0.18 away
What could mislead us
- Deportivo Pereira's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Deportivo Pereira — Jaguares
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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