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Primera A
Deportivo Pasto—Once Caldas
· Estadio Departamental Libertad
What the model reads
83%Under 3.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 83% means the opposite outcome happens about 17% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- PAS
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- ONC
- 29%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 22 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Deportivo Pasto takes 1.53 points per game at home against 0.72 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- Once Caldas's attack: better than ~70% of the teams in the league
- Deportivo Pasto's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
The full analysis of Deportivo Pasto — Once Caldas
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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