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Deportivo Pasto—Deportivo Pereira

· Estadio Departamental Libertad

Final score

1–2

The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.

What the model reads

80%Under 3.5 goals

A probability, not a prediction: 80% means the opposite outcome happens about 20% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.

PAS
46%
Draw
28%
PER
26%
Data quality behind this analysis
100%
Reliability measured in this competition
Fragile — it has run 14 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged

Most probable scorelines

1–113%1–013%0–010%

Together these cover 55% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.

What supports it

  • Deportivo Pereira's defence: tighter than only ~25% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
  • Deportivo Pasto takes 1.69 points per game at home, the opponent 0.46 away
  • Deportivo Pasto takes 1.69 points per game at home against 0.71 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • Deportivo Pasto's defence: tighter than only ~30% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
  • Deportivo Pereira takes 1.44 points per game at home against 0.46 away — two different sides depending on the ground

The full analysis of Deportivo Pasto — Deportivo Pereira

Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.

Open the full analysis →How this number is built

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