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Primera A
Deportes Tolima—Cucuta
· Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Final score
2–1
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
78%Over 1.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 78% means the opposite outcome happens about 22% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- DEP
- 70%
- Draw
- 19%
- CUC
- 11%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 100%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 14 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 54% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Deportes Tolima's attack: better than ~84% of the teams in the league
- Cucuta's defence: tighter than only ~2% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- Deportes Tolima takes 1.95 points per game at home, the opponent 0.38 away
What could mislead us
- Cucuta takes 1.3 points per game at home against 0.38 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
The full analysis of Deportes Tolima — Cucuta
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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