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Ligue 1
CS Sfaxien—CA Bizertin
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What the model reads
64%Home clean sheet
A probability, not a prediction: 64% means the opposite outcome happens about 36% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CSS
- 62%
- Draw
- 26%
- CAB
- 12%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 60%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 70% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- CS Sfaxien's attack: better than ~91% of the teams in the league
- CS Sfaxien takes 2.37 points per game at home, the opponent 0.72 away
- CS Sfaxien takes 2.37 points per game at home against 1.68 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could mislead us
- 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
- The draw still weighs 26%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of CS Sfaxien — CA Bizertin
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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