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Liga MX
Cruz Azul—Toluca
· Estadio Banorte
What the model reads
56%Both teams to score
A probability, not a prediction: 56% means the opposite outcome happens about 44% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CRU
- 47%
- Draw
- 26%
- TOL
- 27%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 46% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Cruz Azul's attack: better than ~92% of the teams in the league
- Cruz Azul takes 2.17 points per game at home, the opponent 1.62 away
- Cruz Azul scores 1.9 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- Toluca's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- Toluca has won 4 of its last 6
The full analysis of Cruz Azul — Toluca
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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