Lire cette analyse en français
Serie B
Cremonese—Virtus Entella
· Stadio Giovanni Zini
What the model reads
57%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 57% means the opposite outcome happens about 43% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CRE
- 57%
- Draw
- 27%
- ENT
- 16%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Fragile — it has run 10 points below what it announced, so this number is capped and flagged
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 59% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Cremonese takes 1.07 points per game at home, the opponent 0.4 away
What could mislead us
- Cremonese's defence: tighter than only ~17% of the teams in the league — among the weakest
- The draw still weighs 27%: the outright win is not secured.
The full analysis of Cremonese — Virtus Entella
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
GrabbleStats publishes model probabilities, confidence levels and data-quality indicators. It is an analysis tool, not betting advice, and it promises no accuracy, certainty or gain. Strictly reserved for adults.