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Ligue 1
CR Belouizdad—ES Setif
· Stade du 5 Juillet 1962
Final score
1–0
The reading below was published before kick-off and has not been rewritten since. It is kept on display whether it held or not — that is what makes the record worth reading.
What the model reads
65%Under 2.5 goals
A probability, not a prediction: 65% means the opposite outcome happens about 35% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- BEL
- 55%
- Draw
- 28%
- SET
- 17%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 63% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- CR Belouizdad's attack: better than ~97% of the teams in the league
- CR Belouizdad takes 2.1 points per game at home, the opponent 0.65 away
- CR Belouizdad scores 2.1 goals per game at home
What could mislead us
- The draw still weighs 28%: the outright win is not secured.
- ES Setif takes 1.95 points per game at home against 0.65 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The full analysis of CR Belouizdad — ES Setif
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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