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Liga MX
Club America—Guadalajara Chivas
· Estadio Banorte
What the model reads
54%Home win
A probability, not a prediction: 54% means the opposite outcome happens about 46% of the time. This number was published before kick-off and is judged against the final score in public.
- CLU
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- GUA
- 20%
- Data quality behind this analysis
- 80%
- Reliability measured in this competition
- Not measured here yet — under twenty judged analyses, a gap is sample noise
Most probable scorelines
Together these cover 56% of what could happen. A single scoreline stays an unlikely event even when it is the most likely one — which is why the figure never travels without its probability.
What supports it
- Club America takes 2.18 points per game at home, the opponent 1.42 away
- Club America takes 2.18 points per game at home against 1.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
- Club America has won 5 of its last 6
What could mislead us
- Guadalajara Chivas's attack: better than ~81% of the teams in the league
The full analysis of Club America — Guadalajara Chivas
Five tabs — the reasoning market by market, the lineups and their effect, the gap against the margin-free consensus, the context, and how the analysis moved — plus the live state during the match. A free account opens them. It never unlocks different numbers: everyone reads the same probabilities.
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